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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

In Which Steelman Polls Ahead of Akin, Wagner and Martin

[ Patrick Tuohey ]

Public Policy Polling released another automated survey of Missourians in which Sarah Steelman favored to win the Republican nomination against Todd Akin, Ed Martin and Ann Wagner (all of whom, it must be noted, have contributed to The Missouri Record).  The PPP memo begins,

Sarah Steelman has a decent but not insurmountable early lead in the Republican primary for the right to face Claire McCaskill, whom PPP showed as very vulnerable in a release last week.

The word "vulnerable" never appeared in the memo to which they refer. In fact, the PPP memo uses terms such as "small leads" and "small advantage" to describe McCaskill's numbers.  FiredUpMissouri dutifully titled their piece, McCaskill Leading Akin, Steelman, Martin and Wagner in Head-to-Head Polling.  The Source, on the other hand, correctly pointed out that the numbers spell trouble for McCaskill.  The PPP author agrees--a week later.

Unfortunately, the PPP crosstabs do not break the numbers down by region.  It is likely that Steelman performs much better in SW Missouri, from where much of the Republican primary vote will come.  But the survey data does provide a breakdown by ideology.

Steelman's best numbers are from self-described "very conservative" survey respondents.  It seems good news for Steelman to be ahead among the very conservative--and those probably most likely to vote--in a Republican primary.

3/16/2011 6:13:03 PM

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