March 1, 2010 08:15 AM

Walsh: Holding Onto House the Priority for Would-Be Speaker

Republicans have controlled the Missouri House since winning the chamber in the 2002 elections, but their margin is not large and the man designated as the next Speaker of the House is concentrating on holding onto that majority. In fact, Majority Floor Leader Steven Tilley of Perryville believes there are opportunities to expand that majority in November.

Tilley, who stands to take over from term-limited Speaker Ron Richard should Republicans hold onto the House, is not taking for granted the 82 seats needed for control of the 163 seat chamber.

“I feel pretty comfortable about our position where we stand right now,” said Tilley in an interview with The Missouri Record during a break in the activities at the Republican Party’s Lincoln Days weekend in St. Charles. “We have a great opportunity to not only keep the majority but grow it, but certainly there’s a lot of work left to be done.”

After capturing the House in 2002 the Republicans made gains in 2004, but lost seats in 2006 and 2008. Tilley expects the tide to turn this year.

“We’re looking forward to a tailwind and I think that if you look at any polling that’s out there right now that’s exactly what we’re going to get,” said Tilley.

Tilley acknowledges there is a clear distinction between federal and state politics but he hopes for some advantage to come from disenchantment with Democrats who control both the White House and Congress in Washington.

“I think it definitely affects us,” said Tilley. “I think if there’s a bad Democratic environment it kind of weighs down the Democrats, just like when it’s a bad Republican environment it weighs down the Republicans. When you look at the anger and the frustration that’s going on in D.C. those people are going to be more likely to come out to the polls. And if you’re angry and you’re frustrated and you’re more likely to come out to the polls and you vote for Republicans certainly that’s going to help the local House candidates.”

No one on the Republican side expects gains to be made only through anger and frustration. They understand that a lot of work remains to be done. But optimism is in abundance.

“I’ve been involved in recruiting [candidates] since 2004 and I’ve never seen an environment where recruiting has run as well for us as it has this cycle,” said Tilley. “People are energized, they’re excited, and they want to get involved.”

As a result of term limits Republicans find themselves defending 60 seats in 2010 - many of them in southwest Missouri where Democrats have had difficulty gaining traction. But Tilley feels good about the open seats in the so-called swing areas.

“When you look at the ones that can go either way, what I call the swing districts, it boils down to about 15 districts,” said Tilley. “When you look even further into those 15 districts an overwhelming majority of them lean Republican.”

Might legal and ethical problems faced by several state lawmakers alter Republican plans? Not any more than they might affect Democrats, according to Tilley.

“The fact is that if you look over the past year you’ve had probably six or seven Democratic members of the House and Senate that have either pled guilty to a crime or resigned - ranging from drunk driving all the way to the [public corruption] charges Representative [T.D.] El-Amin just experienced,” said Tilley. “And I don’t think everybody paints the Democrats as a corrupt group.”

If Republicans fail to hold onto House control Tilley will not remain in House leadership.

“I won’t run for the Minority Leader,“ said Tilley. “I’ll tell you that because if I can’t keep us in the majority I think it’s time for somebody else to move ahead and run our caucus. But I will tell you that we will be in the majority. Right now we are at 89 and I’d say it’s a likelihood that we’ll be somewhere in the 91, 92 to 94 range.”

Tilley expects to pick up a few Democratic seats without losing any Republican districts.

“You will see on Election Day we’re going to surprise a few incumbent Democrats and knock them off,” said Tilley. “And I don’t think we’re going to lose any. I think I can hold onto every Republican seat that we now currently hold.”